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Prediction markets, explained properly.
No hype, no promises. Just how these markets work, how they are priced, and what separates a considered position from a hunch.
- What a prediction market actually is Event contracts settle at 100 or 0. That single fact explains the pricing, the strategy, and most of the mistakes newcomers make.
- Polymarket and Kalshi: how the two venues differ Same broad idea, materially different structures. What separates the two largest prediction market venues, and why it changes how you trade each.
- What a proprietary trading firm is, and what it is not The model is old and unglamorous: a firm allocates capital to traders it has screened. Here is how the modern retail version works and what to check before paying anyone.