Prediction markets prop firm
Our capital. Your call.
- 01
Pick a side
BTC above $120K on Friday?
- 02
Pass the evaluation
Simulated evaluation
Your progressTarget
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$5K–$100K
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Simulated evaluation · Not financial advice · Pricing · Compare firms · Rulebook
Already trade crypto?
You read levels, dates and volatility. So do these markets.
Will Bitcoin close above a level by Friday? Finish the day up or down? Crypto prediction markets price that question as a probability. No leverage, no liquidation, no funding — and a few rules a crypto desk never had.
The figures
Charts that are mostly about you.
Each of these is a joke on the surface and a lesson underneath. They are about how a position actually gets formed — which is the part of the process an evaluation tests hardest, and the part almost nobody writes down.
Every percentage in this series is invented, and each plate says so. They describe a habit, not a measurement.
Fig. 1 — A taxonomy of takes Unscientific
Confidence against correctness. Every percentage in this series is invented.
A scatter quadrant. Points cluster most heavily in the confident-and-wrong quadrant, and second most heavily in the confident-and-right one. The quietly-right quadrant is the sparsest of the four.
How right you were →
Quietly right Should have sized up.
Insufferable We know. You posted.
Healthy Genuinely nothing wrong here.
Everyone on X Confidently, loudly, wrong.
How sure you were →
Fig. 3 — The anatomy of a hunch Composition
What a strong feeling is actually made of. Percentages are invented.
- Vibes
- 34%
- One headline
- 24%
- A guy on X
- 19%
- Pattern recognition
- 14%
- Research
- 9%
Fig. 6 — How you found out you were wrong Source
First notification of an adverse resolution. Percentages are invented.
- A push notification
- 41%
- Someone quote-tweeted you
- 23%
- The group chat
- 18%
- You refreshed. Again.
- 12%
- You checked the actual news
- 6%
Straight answers
The awkward questions.
Isn’t this just gambling?
A prediction market is a market. Contracts trade on probability and settle on fact. If you can price an outcome better than the crowd, that is an edge — the same as it is in any other market. What it is not is a sportsbook: nobody sets a price against you, and nobody limits your account for winning.
What’s the catch?
You pay for the evaluation, and if you do not pass, you are not funded. We say that plainly because most people do not pass, and anyone telling you otherwise is selling you something worse. Every rule that decides it is already published, including the arithmetic of what passing demands.
Where we are
We would rather be late than vague.
A lot of firms in this category launch with the numbers filled in and the rules written afterwards. We did it the other way round. The complete rulebook is public — including the arithmetic of what passing actually demands.
Pricing is published too — one evaluation fee per account size, published up front, not revealed after checkout. New to this? The FAQ answers the common questions in plain language.
Recent writing
- A deadline market loses a little every day nothing happens Contracts that ask whether something happens by a date are priced on the time left, not just the likelihood. Here is what that decay does to the price, the opening band and a drawdown that counts open profit.
- The cap sets the size. The drawdown sets how many. Classic position-sizing maths says how much to commit when you have an edge. Under a half-percent profit ceiling it almost never gets a say. The question that replaces it is how many full losses your drawdown can hold.
- A scheduled announcement does not walk the price. It jumps it. Markets tied to a release at a known minute behave differently from markets that drift toward an answer. The October rate decision is a live example of why size has to be set for the gap, not the mark.