For crypto traders
You already read the chart.
Now price the question.
Will Bitcoin close above a level by Friday? Will it finish today up or down? Crypto prediction markets turn the view you already hold into a contract priced as a probability. Your Call evaluates that skill on a simulated account, then lets you trade it with firm capital instead of your own stack.
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Your Call evaluations trade Polymarket, where crypto is one of the market categories.
What carries over
The skill transfers.
Levels and dates
Above a price by a date. Up or down on the day. The questions you already ask, with a live number for what everyone else thinks.
Volatility instinct
If a market prices a 6% move in 48 hours at 40 cents, you already have a view on whether that is rich or cheap. That comparison is most of the work.
The calendar
Inflation prints, rate decisions, unlocks, expiries. You know which dates move crypto. The question here is how much, not whether.
What is gone
The liquidation engine isn't.
No liquidation
Fully paid YES or NO. The most a position can lose is what you paid. A wick does not close you out — only resolution settles.
No funding
Holding for three weeks costs the same as holding for three hours.
No leverage
Size is limited by a profit ceiling per event, not by margin. Buying NO is the bearish side.
Reading a contract
One position, both outcomes.
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens and nothing if it does not. At 35 cents, the market is putting the outcome at roughly 35 percent.
| $100 of YES at 35 cents | |
|---|---|
| Shares | 285.71 |
| If YES | 285.71 back — a gain of 185.71 |
| If NO | the 100 is gone, nothing more |
| Commission | 1.00 on open, nothing on close |
The commission is charged on cost basis — what you actually pay for the shares, not what they would be worth at settlement.
What is different
Three rules a crypto desk never had.
- A ceiling per event. The most any one event can add is half a percent of account size — $250 on a 50,000 account. Breadth wins evaluations, not size, and short-dated crypto markets resolve fast enough to matter.
- A price band. Opening orders sit between 20 and 80 cents, and markets must resolve within 60 days. Cheap far-out strikes cannot be opened.
- A drawdown that counts open profit. Every limit is equity-based and the maximum drawdown trails a high-water mark that never locks. A pump you never take off still raises your floor. Crypto stresses this rule harder than any other category — here is the worked example.
None of this makes the evaluation easy. Most people do not pass. Every rule that decides it is in the rulebook, and every price is on the pricing page before you pay.
Start here
Reading for crypto traders.
- Prediction markets for crypto traders: what carries over What transfers from perps and options, what disappears, and the three rules that are new.
- Crypto volatility and a drawdown that counts open profit Eight Bitcoin positions that never closed and still breached — worked through step by step.
- Twenty events is not twenty risks Why ten markets on the same coin are closer to one position than ten.
- The fee curve nobody publishes Same one percent, sixteen times the cost at the top of the price range.