The figures
Charts that are mostly about you.
A numbered series about how a position actually gets formed — the part of the process an evaluation tests hardest, and the part almost nobody writes down. Each one is a joke on the surface and a lesson underneath.
Every number in this series is invented, and each plate says so on its face. They describe a habit, not a measurement. Nothing here is a claim about results, ours or anyone else's.
Fig. 1 — A taxonomy of takes Unscientific
Confidence against correctness. Every percentage in this series is invented.
A scatter quadrant. Points cluster most heavily in the confident-and-wrong quadrant, and second most heavily in the confident-and-right one. The quietly-right quadrant is the sparsest of the four.
How right you were →
Quietly right Should have sized up.
Insufferable We know. You posted.
Healthy Genuinely nothing wrong here.
Everyone on X Confidently, loudly, wrong.
How sure you were →
Fig. 2 — The cope index Also unscientific
What people say after a market resolves against them. The index is invented.
- “I was early.”
- 100
- “It was basically rigged.”
- 86
- “Fundamentally I was right.”
- 74
- “The market is irrational.”
- 61
- “I meant it as a hedge.”
- 44
- “I only risked a little.”
- 29
- “Yeah, I got that one wrong.”
- 6
Fig. 3 — The anatomy of a hunch Composition
What a strong feeling is actually made of. Percentages are invented.
- Vibes
- 34%
- One headline
- 24%
- A guy on X
- 19%
- Pattern recognition
- 14%
- Research
- 9%
Fig. 4 — The conviction clock 24h
Decision quality across a day. Most blown evaluations happen in the pink zone. The curve is invented.
A line chart of decision quality by hour, running from six in the morning to five the next morning. It peaks in the mid-morning, dips after lunch, recovers briefly, then declines all evening and falls to its lowest point of the whole day at two in the morning before starting to recover.
Actually fine The 2am conviction trade
Fig. 5 — What your book actually looks like By size
Consistency rules exist because of the pink block. The weights are invented.
A treemap of position sizes. One conviction position takes sixty-four per cent of the book on its own. The correctly sized position is the smallest block on the chart, at three per cent.
The one you're sure about 64%
A hedge you forgot 14%
Something a friend said 11%
Momentum 8%
Sized correctly 3%
Fig. 6 — How you found out you were wrong Source
First notification of an adverse resolution. Percentages are invented.
- A push notification
- 41%
- Someone quote-tweeted you
- 23%
- The group chat
- 18%
- You refreshed. Again.
- 12%
- You checked the actual news
- 6%
The rules these habits run into are all written down: read the rulebook, or start with the explainers.